In the middle of the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt knew the American people needed a reason for hope and some marker to know if things were improving. So Roosevelt coined the term “first 100 days” as a time increment to measure how a new president was faring. The idea stuck, and since then, a president’s first 100 days are considered a symbolic benchmark of success or failure.
By any reasonable analysis, Trump’s first 100 days have been a disaster, especially on the issues that supposedly got him elected.
Trump and Co. will twist themselves into knots telling you otherwise, but don’t be fooled by the spin. Trump 2.0 isn’t making America, or any place else, great again.
Trump has said he doesn’t believe in polls, although the latest ones are so bad he is demanding an investigation of the pollsters. Every major poll commissioned to assess his first 100 days indicates that Trump’s favorability is plummeting.
Trump came into office with less-than-robust approval ratings. Today, they are the lowest for any modern president at this point in their term. According to Nate Silver’s polling average, 53% of the country disapprove of Trump, while 44% approve.
Only two modern presidencies have been underwater at this point, meaning disapproval ratings are higher than approval: Trump in 2025 and Trump in 2017. The polling numbers go much deeper than simply liking or disliking the president. His numbers are low on just about every issue, including the economy and immigration.
If you need a turning point, look no further than Trump’s ill-termed “Liberation Day” on April 2. That’s when Trump announced massive reciprocal tariffs against our biggest trading partners, causing a huge market sell-off. Talk of recession and inflation ramped up. And his poll numbers took a nosedive.
From a good economy just 100 days ago to this: 73% now say the economy is in bad shape, and 64% disapprove of Trump’s tariffs, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll out today.
Trump is employing his red-light, green-light playbook on tariffs, causing serious uncertainty for U.S. and global businesses. Though consumers haven’t felt the effects of the tariffs yet, brace yourselves — we are about to be walloped. As the old song says, “You ain’t seen nothing yet.”
We are just weeks away from what economists call “supply shock.” According to Bloomberg, Walmart and Target executives have warned Trump personally that shoppers will see empty shelves and higher prices very soon.
Spring is when retailers put in orders for the back-to-school through Christmas seasons. Eighty percent of toys sold here are made in China. According to Bloomberg, cargo shipments to U.S. ports from China are already down 40%. One economist predicted “Covid-like” supply shortages.
So even if Trump reverses himself on tariffs tomorrow, supply chains will have to contend with shortages, delays, and bottlenecks to get back to pre-tariff levels. Either way, it means things will cost more.
Inflation and recession are not just on the table but are likely in the opinion of many economists looking to the short-term future.
On immigration, Trump’s policies aren’t doing much better. Overreach and cruelty don’t poll well, with 53% disapproving of how the administration is handling the issue. It seems people take great exception to deporting dozens of legal immigrants without due process and in defiance of more than one court order. Add to that that the administration has deported citizens — children born in the U.S. — including one undergoing cancer treatment.
The White House seems unperturbed by the polling numbers, as border czar Tom Homan was a special guest at the White House briefing today. Homan defended the deportation of the children of an undocumented woman as a “parental decision.” Lawyers for the mother say she wasn’t given the option to leave them in the U.S.
So if that’s how Trump is doing on his best issues, how’s the rest going? Spoiler alert: not well.
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When Trump appointed multibillionaire Elon Musk to oversee the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, he said he did it to ferret out “waste, fraud and abuse” in the federal bureaucracy. Musk quickly became one of the most polarizing features of Trump 2.0.
Musk’s polling numbers are even worse than his boss’s. Silver’s polling average puts Musk’s unfavorability at 54%, with favorability at 38%. Indications are that his big loss in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and tanking Tesla stock are why we haven’t seen him parading around Washington lately.
In December, Musk promised to cut $2 trillion from the federal government. He has since downgraded that to $150 billion, a fraction of the original number. Either way, the majority of the American people aren’t happy with his indiscriminate and impulsive management style.
Folks aren’t too keen on what Musk is doing to cut the budget, either. According to ABC News, 58% say the Trump administration has done too much to reduce the size of government, and a whopping 77% oppose cuts in funding for medical research.
Most of the subjects we have considered here have tangible outcomes that immediately affect voters. But what about big-picture issues like destroying democracy? A majority of Americans don’t approve of that, either.
Two-thirds say Trump is trying to avoid complying with federal court orders, 64% believe he has gone too far in trying to expand presidential power, and 62% say he has no respect for the law (all according to the ABC News poll). It is gratifying that people see these abuses and are calling them out.
This week Trump is making the rounds of the mainstream media — not his norm — to tout his perceived early successes. He made this startling declaration to The Atlantic: “The first time, I had two things to do — run the country and survive; I had all these crooked guys. And the second time, I run the country and the world.”
No one should be under any illusions that these poll numbers will shift the president’s behavior; on the contrary, they may even embolden him. But you can bet that every member of Congress is parsing the polls and deciding what it means for their reelection prospects. Remember, 468 of them will be running in 2026, and if Trump’s approval drops deep into the 30s, watch out — Republican “soul-searching” will begin.
A short addendum about last night.
A salute and tip of the old Stetson to “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley. At the end of last night’s program, Pelley stood tall and delivered — big time. He reported a hard truth about CBS News’s parent company, Paramount Global, and its board chair, Shari Redstone (whom he didn't name but referenced implicitly). Pelley addressed the resignation of Bill Owens, the longtime executive producer of “60 Minutes,” and what led to his departure: corporate interference.
“Stories we pursued for 57 years are often controversial. Lately, the Israel-Gaza war and the Trump administration. Bill made sure they were accurate and fair, he was tough that way. But our parent company, Paramount, is trying to complete a merger,” Pelley said. “The Trump administration must approve it. Paramount began to supervise our content in new ways.” Pelley added, “None of our stories have been blocked. But Bill felt he lost the independence that honest journalism requires. No one here is happy about it. But, in resigning, Bill proved one thing: He was the right person to lead ‘60 Minutes’ all along.”
Well done, Scott.
Stay Steady,
Dan
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